Eritrea’s president Isaias Afwerki has accused neighbouring Ethiopia of agitating for war with his country, saying it was engaged in provocative rhetoric in its quest for access to the sea.
In an interview with Eritrean state television channel Eri-TV on July 19 that covered a wide-range of issues, the president said Ethiopia had sent a letter to UN secretary general Antonio Guterres falsely accusing his country of stoking conflict, describing the accusation as both “astounding and infantile”.
He said the letter was part of a “cheap lie” by the Ethiopian government “to cove up its preparations” for war with Eritrea.
He called on Addis Ababa to focus on addressing its domestic problems instead of “diverting attention” and “agitating for war”.
The Eritrean president said Ethiopia was engaging in “provocative rhetoric” by “claiming” to have the support of France, the US, the United Arab Emirates and other countries, adding that this was “not entirely true”.
He also dismissed Ethiopia’s longstanding push for access to a sea outlet as “reckless adventure”.
Afwerki, who has led Eritrea since the 1990s, warned Ethiopia that it would not be able to simply overwhelm his country by weight of numbers.
Ethiopia’s population is estimated to be at 130 million compared to Eritrea’s 3.5 million people.
Ethiopia’s government did not publicly respond to Afwerki’s remarks.
The Eritrean leader’s comments came amid rising tensions with Ethiopia and followed the release of a report by American non-governmental organisation The Sentry which accused Asmara of rebuilding its army and destabilising its neighbours.
Eritrea rejected the report and blamed Ethiopia for “the new tension in the region”.
Afwerki’s remarks also came months after former Ethiopian president Mulatu Teshome accused Eritrea of “working to reignite conflict in northern Ethiopia” and called for global pressure on Asmara to avert such a war.
Teshome, president from 2013 to 2018, wrote in February on Al Jazeera’s website that Afwerki was “not just drawn to conflict but he seeks it out and thrives in it, like a pyromaniac who can’t resist setting fires”.
“The world must act. Diplomatic pressure is needed to deter those who want to see an end to peace, like Isaias,” Teshome added.
In a lengthy response, Eritrean information minister Yemane Gebremeskel accused the former Ethiopian leader of “scapegoating Eritrea”.
“(The) audacious claim is precisely intended to conceal and rationalise a war-mongering agenda,” the minister said on X (formerly Twitter).
“For reasons that are difficult to fathom, the Ethiopian federal government has unleashed, in the past months, an intensive and unwarranted campaign of provocation against Eritrea through its “thinly-veiled” agenda of acquiring ports and maritime land “legally if possible and militarily if necessary,” he added.
What is the history between Ethiopia and Eritrea?
Eritrea and Ethiopia share a complex history and have had a fraught relationship.
Eritrea was part of its larger neighbour until it gained independence in 1993 after a 30-year war led by the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front.
The two countries have fought a bitter border war since Eritrea’s independence.
That war ended in 2000 but caused a “no war, no peace” stalemate until 2018 when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to office and signed a peace deal with Afwerki.
That agreement earned the Ethiopian prime minister the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, ties between Asmara and Addis Ababa soured again after a 2020-2022 conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in which Eritrea supported Ethiopia’s federal army against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Eritrea reportedly continued to maintain troop presence in Tigray despite a deal between Ethiopia’s government and the TPLF that ended the war calling for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the region.
Analysts say Eritrea was unhappy with the deal, which reportedly excluded it and allowed the TPLF, with which it remains deeply hostile, to govern Tigray region.
The tensions were worsened by Eritrea’s concerns over landlocked Ethiopia’s renewed focus on securing sea access.
Ethiopia became landlocked and lost all its seaports upon Eritrea’s independence in 1993, significantly impacting its trade routes and logistics. It currently relies on neighbouring Djibouti and other countries for its exports and imports.
What is at the heart of the current tensions?
The tensions stem from Ethiopia’s renewed push for Red Sea access, according to both local and international media outlets.
Abiy Ahmed has called sea access an “existential issue” for his vast country, raising fears in Eritrea of territorial ambitions, especially over the port of Assab.
Eritrea’s reported continued military presence in Tigray despite a peace agreement calling for the departure of its troops and its alleged support for factions of the TPLF against Ethiopia’s federal government have further exacerbated the tensions.
What have others said?
Eritrea’s government has denied accusations of occupying Ethiopian territory as “fabricated”.
Former US and European envoys to the Horn of Africa Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos have described Tigray region as “dry tinder” for a potential new Ethiopian-Eritrean war.
The London-based think tank Chatham House has urged restraint, warning of the risk of regional destabilisation.
The African Union, the EU and the US have also called for de-escalation.
Egypt’s recent alignment with Eritrea, driven by a dispute with Ethiopia over the construction of a mega-dam on the Nile River, has added complexity to the situation.
What is likely to happen next?
In March, Abiy Ahmed said his government would not seek war with Eritrea, but both nations have reportedly mobilised troops along their common border in recent months, sparking fears of a possible confrontation.
Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae, Tigray’s vice-president, warned in the same month that “at any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out”.
Without an urgent diplomatic intervention, escalation is possible.
However, neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea can afford full-scale war due to past experiences, historical ties between their peoples, economic challenges and internal schisms.
A return to a “no war, no peace” status quo is likely to occur if the current tensions persist.
Local communities on the common border continue to advocate for peace, but military posturing could trigger a precarious situation.